Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Monsieur aubuggie has an excellent idea..How about Royal Belizian Mint of Pomona?..Hey, send Frank your socks from that wild trek… He’s been itching to analyze some river samples for months 

 you can always delete it and shut it down and get back to having fun.

Man, I wish I had your passion!

But not so sure I’d want to sit in your dentist chair after you read some tent postings!!!

lol.

and the oldest form of cash is GOLD!!!

arch0708.goldtent.net/2008/10/02/the-coming-inflation/

and this ?

arch0708.goldtent.net/2008/10/04/the-outlook-from-sep-2008-to-dec-2010/

or was it also cut and paste (plagarized ?)

…………..Mr Inflation goes Deflation…..in a few weeks !

sheesh

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adK4MaqnHpnU&refer=home

Dictionary:      unlimited

adj.

1. Having no restrictions or controls: 
2. Having or seeming to have no boundaries; infinite: 
3. Without qualification or exception; absolute:

….You came on here gangbusters for a HUI Low and expecting a strong rally….I thought you were in the Inflation camp…….now you are quoting a died in the wool Deflationist…fair enough….but your posts are misleading and confusing…

………I read this guys stuff…..and basically he is saying all other economists are pompous Asses who think they know it all………………….but that is exatly how your mentor comes off!……very easy to dislike a guy like that !

Those of you who have told me that the dollar would become worthless can now begin to see why you were wrong. The dollar is in a deflationary spiral, which makes it increasingly valuable, while other currencies, including the euro, are collapsing.I’ve received a lot of questions about this issue. It’s true that America is deeply in debt, inasmuch as we owe China, Japan and other foreign countries far more money than we can ever pay back.

But that’s not the issue. The dollar has been the reserve currency since at least the 1930s, and there are huge amounts of dollars in countries around the world.

In the case of Germany’s Weimar Republic, which suffered hyper-inflation in the 1920s, few people outside of Germany owned marks. In the case of Zimbabwe today, no one outside of Zimbabwe owns Zimbabwe dollars.

But there are huge amounts of dollars outside of America — Europe, China, the Mideast — and all of those holders are as committed to the value and integrity of the dollar as America is.

Forget about the dollar as an American currency. Think of the dollar as a world currency. Even if America no longer had any dollars whatsoever, the dollar would still be valuable on international markets as a world currency.

People have accused me of being “nationalistic” when I write this about the dollar, but that has absolutely nothing to do with it. It’s not nationalistic to say that the dollar has become an international world currency, whose value no longer even depends on how many dollars America has. America is just one holder of dollars, among hundreds of other countries, and the value of the dollar is determined by the collective value assigned to it by all those hundreds of countries.

For that reason, the dollar will continue to strengthen against other currencies, as the deflationary spiral continues

We haven’t seen a major generational panic yet, where millions of Boomers and Gen-Xers panic and try to sell everything.

Must such a panic occur? I believe it must. Generational theory says so.

But this time it won’t be just a stock market panic. It will stretch much farther, into hedge funds, credit default swaps ($60 trillion) and other credit derivatives ($1 quadrillion).

All the Fed interventions of the last years — the TAFs and TARPs and other stuff — have been very successful it targeting specific points of weakness.

If you imagine the global economy as a huge ballooon, then the Fed interventions have targeted specific large holes in the balloon.

But there are thousands, perhaps millions, of tiny pinholes in the balloon that have escaped the Fed’s interventions, and so the balloon as a whole has still be deflating. Even worse, as the balloon contracts, the pinholes actually get larger — the physical analogy breaks down here, but the hedge funds that represent the pinholes become more and more exposed as the market falls

It’s increasingly clear that a lot of forced selling has been going on since the beginning of the credit crunch a year ago. A year ago, the forced selling was just a trickle. Since then it’s accelerated, and today it appears to be an avalanche. At some point, and it can’t be too much longer now, the avalanche will accelerate further into a full scale “panic event” that will be remembered for decades.

It’s important to understand this, because the 1929 crash was not caused by “loss of confidence,” even though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has spent his entire career believing that. It was caused by exactly this kind of forced selling. It was a lot simpler then. Individual investors buying stocks on margin were forced to sell to meet margin calls. Forced selling lowers stock prices, which causes more margin calls which causes more forced selling.

But this time, it’s not just individual investors meeting margin calls. You’ve got $60 trillion of interlocked credit default swaps that will have to unwind, and there are other credit derivatives totalling $1 quadrillion.

Thus, the generational panic and crash, when it comes, will be far larger than anything that happened in 1929.

The puzzle, as I’ve mentioned before, is that the timeline is a little different than it was in 1929. In 1929, there was a huge panic that dropped the market 40%, and after that it kept falling to 10% of its peak value.

Today, a year after the credit crunch began, the market has already fallen 40%, so a generational panic and crash might push the market down another 10-20% pretty quickly. Despite the differing timelines, in the end, though, it’s reasonable to expect that the market will do as it did in 1929, ending up at 10% of its peak value, or around Dow 1400, sometime around 2012.

back aboot 8 years ago I attempted to get all the people I knew together to buy this town .. at that time it was ” up for sale ” the entire town 7 million bucks, all infrastructure, all buildings, all land … no one would go for the IDEA, .. a complete town .. in a mining zone .. oh well ..

2_p

Why that is a darn good idea ya have there….hmmmmmm double hmmmmm….waddaya think there AuGirl

…Now….they have Gold tied to the Dollar….when the buck is up in DX terms…Gold is up in Dollar terms…..For umpteen years it has been the oposite of course…..sheesh….just when you figure you have to be a Euro Bull to be a Gold Bull………now you have to be a Dollar and Yen Bull……to be a Gold Bull

…….Looking forward to the time when Gold does its own thing in spite of other markets………

…..Right now its like this…
.Deflation *Stronger Dollar) = Gold UP
..Inflation (weaker dollar )= Gold Down

Thse Cretins put the Counter in Counter Intuitive !

What forum did you find this guy on?