I might have been looking for a final 5th wave up in the PM sector going into summer that did not playout, but the rest of my scenario I laid out over the last few years for the 4th quarter of 08 has pretty well been on cue.  That was deflation scare into the 4th quarter with the Dow falling to a bit below 7,000 while Gold fell back to the old historic highs, and the PM stocks fell about 60%- though Gold and the PM stocks did not run as high early in the year as I expected.  You can say it was not a “deflation scare”, but a true deflationary climate is a long run thing…….all we had was a short-term blip up in the Dollar of around 12 points- nothing like Dollar deflation.  After the sharp correction in the PM sector, I have always had Gold going to new highs as we approach the parabola into 2012 with the PM stocks probably rising into 2014………dollar falling off the cliff.  This is all a mirror of the charts in the 70’s in terms of Gold, Dow, and dollar movements.  BTW, the top for GG which I was heavily in did not come till July where I exited.  Yes, I held other core positions through the fall because I am looking for the big Dollar fall coming as the Fed was only taking a break from the Dollar inflation as it periodically has throughout the current PM Bull.  Yet, am looking for the PM stocks to go much, much higher over the next 4 to 6 years and started buying again last Thursday.  Still looking for the possibility for the Dow to make a final move lower this week into a cycle bottom with the usual re-test or final low about 30 days out. 

 The infaltion versus deflation debate was never about a short-term move in the Dow, but about whether we were in a deflation scenario like 1929 versus the kind of “deflation scare” we saw in a short term in the 70’s- a pull back from the dollar inflation scheme before more dollar inflation was increased in spades.  With the Deal, we now also have that dollar inflation scheme firmly back to expectations.  The 70’s chart showed the same blip up in the dollar with a sharp drop in the dollar following, and I expect that is where we are at.

 As far as decisions by Europe to devalue the dollar overnight, who really knows if that will be pulled off.  Since it fits with my long-term expectations of a dollar tanking down to around 62 in this period, then going lower- it fits with my expectations as presented years, ago.  Interesting what was written on the Leap article.  Russia becoming the energy zar, etc.  I am starting to wonder if the NAU was not a “potential” scheme worked out to protect against exactly that with the region’s resources from Canada and Mexico backing the Amero currency.  If it were to occur, that might change the parameters a bit, eh?  Of course, it might also change my long-term projections to some extent also.  We’ll just have to wait to see. 

So Moose, I had all of this drawn up back around Gold 500 a few years, ago, except for the potential 5th wave up in Gold that did not come off.  I guess it took you quite awhile to catch up, eh?   Are you a slow moose?