Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

thats a ten four .. the heber creeper .. lol

www.utah.com/attractions/heber_valley.htm

THE STARBUCKS THING

RUNS A CLOSE SECOND TO

MR COSCOS

YOU GUYS BETTER HIRE A NEW MAKE UP MAN

Word on the street:     That wonderful, gentle person Ment is trading in the manure wagon!

Got himself a Gold Train!

http://www.railpictures.net/viewphoto.php?id=238769

see my earlier post on swaps. the futures looks ready to collapse.

rno

Aftershock and Gold Rocket

By James West
www.MidasLetter.com

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Welcome to the opening ceremony of a modern depression.

The effects of the financial shock are starting to make themselves felt in my neck of the woods. Neighbors on three sides not involved even peripherally in the financial markets are unemployed now. Vacations for the year have been cancelled.

Even Paramount Pictures announced this week that they would only be “green lighting” 20 films for production instead of their originally budgeted 25.

General Motors (NYSE:GM), Ford (NYSE:F) and Chrysler (DCX) are laying off thousands upon thousands.

Copper and nickel mines are closing, and feasibility studies are being postponed. Yahoo is laying off 10% of its workforce.

There is barely a single industry outside of anything related to home foreclosure that is not in the process or about to enter the process of hunkering down and trimming the workforce to survive what is now universally perceived to be lean times ahead.

The joke of the week I heard was this: I went into Starbucks (NYSE:SBUX) to buy a coffee and they offered me a free bank with it.

Starbucks is closing 600 stores this year. Bah humbug.

If for some reason you’re still wearing rose colored glasses through all of this, now is the time to prepare for the biggest social upheaval these generations will ever see.

Crime is about to become rampant. As police forces start laying off due to reduced tax revenue at the municipal, state, provincial, county and federal level, desperate times will force good people to do bad things. Bad people won’t even wait for times to toughen up.

And I don’t know about where you live, but here in Portland, the city is literally crumbling…the many bridges that criss-cross the Willamette River seem to be in generally good repair – they double as housing for a good number of the city’s shelter-challenged. But a truck dropped into a sinkhole that opened up in the middle of the street not so long ago, which was very entertaining while at the same time vaguely nerve-wracking.

Fortunately, the federal government isn’t hesitating in its stated promise of economic stimulus packages. $12.8 billion is being distributed to get crews working on bridges, tunnels and highway projects. The Federal Highway Administration claims 34 jobs are created with every million dollars spent.

That will come as cold comfort to the 6.1% of the population who is unemployed. That’s 9 million people, according to Bureau of Labor statistics. Including those who can only find part-time work or are otherwise not looking for work, the figure of under-employed Americans extends to more like 15.5 million, according to the American Federation of Labor.

There is nothing but trouble as far as the eye can see. Major threatened industries include airlines, tourism, automotive and of course, the financial industry.

For many, a Merry Christmas is as likely as gold falling from the sky. At least Fed Chairman Benranke has promised to dump dollar bills from helicopters…by the time that happens, they’ll probably be more useful as litter box liner.

Which brings us back to gold.

The sheer magnitude of hate mail coming my way from people who revile my advocacy for gold is almost as mind boggling as the price weakness if the face of almost zero supply of small denomination coins and bars.

The chart below demonstrates the strong increase in gold lease rates in the last 90 days.

What does that tell us about the future price of gold?

Well, for one thing, it now costs as much to borrow gold as it does to borrow currency, which is a clear indication that the supply of gold for leasing is tightening while demand remains strong. Most central banks have ceased lending gold completely.

The most common question being asked is, “If gold is in such strong demand and short supply, why is the price so weak?”

And that’s a little bit complicated, but like most everything in these most volatile times, nothing makes sense. At least, not in the short term. Instead of re-iterating the explanation of the downward pressure created by the gold carry trade and the futures market, I refer readers to the excellent work of John Embry and Andrew Hepburn, who published a work called “Not Free, Not Fair, and which is available here: www.sprott.com/pdf/not_free_not_fair.pdf .

The bottom line is this: the massive repatriation of US Dollars as a result of de-leveraging globally and the unwinding of so many credit contingent deals is making the US Dollar look strong, while the gold manipulation cartel is exerting its utmost effort to keep the spot price of gold low through concentrated short positions on COMEX. The price of gold will emerge from this negative influence on the next leg down and the economy goes into a broader paralysis instead of being limited as it is now to real estate and financials. Most credible analysts are recommending a minimum 30% exposure to gold for institutional portfolios.

Though its hard to imagine in the current price environment, both gold and silver are on the verge of a tremendous breakout to the upside, and if you can’t get your hands on the physical bullion over the next 24 months, the producing companies will be next followed closely by well cashed up junior explorers with million ounce+ deposits in National Instrument 43-101 compliant categories.

Ignore the negative press on gold, and recognize the current price weakness for what it is: the last time you’ll see gold this cheap in a long time, and therefore a huge opportunity.

James West is the editor of MidasLetter.com, a subscriber-based financial newsletter that alerts readers to opportunities and threats to their financial well-being. A subscription is US$499 for one year. Visit www.MidasLetter.com to learn more.

feeder cattle have developed a 5 point rpw and awaiting a buy signal. lots more rpws’ waiting for the buy/sell execution. next week will make/confirm major tops/bottoms. gold is awaiting a close above high of low day (today). made key reversal today.

look for some big announcement over the weekend. anyone hear of any failed banks this week?

sipping a few suds, listening to johnnie rivers, jim morrison, willie nelson, and janis joplin. reviewed the daily, weekly and monthly charts. as mentioned before by our fearless leader-CHARGE. i’m right behind belcha, welding clamp on my nose, holding my breath. irish roadkill stew with onion and garlic is breathtaking the second time around.

rno

Next week
First internet access for sovereign CDS

By David Oakley

Published: October 23 2008 22:12 Last updated: October 23 2008 22:12

Government credit default swaps are to be published on the internet for the first time, in a sign of the increasing importance of these instruments as the economic and financial crisis deepens.

Only a few months ago, the cost of insuring government debt was rarely focused on by investors because most countries were considered stable. This was reflected in their relatively steady CDS prices, which provided little opportunity to make money.

But since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last month and the decision of governments to guarantee financial debt, this has changed. Even the biggest and richest economies, such as the US and UK, have seen sharp swings in their cost of protection.

Markit, the data provider, will provide the prices on its website in the next week, together with the prices of the main CDS indices that track the credit risk of companies in Europe, the US and Asia, which are already published.

Suki Mann, credit strategist at SG CIB, said: “Sovereign credit default swaps have become sexier as the economic health of governments and their economies has become the story. They are much livelier now than they were only a few months ago. More investors are looking at them.”

The CDS prices of the emerging market nations have seen the most dramatic movements of late.

Argentina, for example, saw its CDS price jump to 4,000 basis points – the highest sovereign spread in the world – on Thursday. This means it costs $4m to insure $10m of Argentine debt over five years. It has jumped nearly 1,000bp this week. Other big movers include Russia, which has jumped to 1,000bp; Ukraine, trading at a record 2,800bp; and Pakistan, which saw prices rise to 3,000bp at one point on Thursday.

These countries are all suffering from the dramatic rise in risk aversion and deepening fears over the severity of the global slowdown.

Credit default swaps have grown dramatically in the past five years with the market now valued at $54,000bn in outstanding contracts.

FT.com

……vote vote vote …………

The joke of the week I heard was this: I went into Starbucks (NYSE:SBUX) to buy a coffee and they offered me a free bank with it.

mr gold bug .. the stealth buyer of value ..

wanna pick up a good used manure wagon .. trading down for effect lol whos that guy in that run down wagon .. with manure

“25 inch water main trying to get into 1/2 inch water hose”

heck .. we might need ..lot’s of “Joe The Plumbers” ….{g}

Nite Ment

but I wanna know .. will it pay  .. “Joe The Plumber” ??

my stance has been the time will come when gold will be unavailable to the average person..

we are almost there .. look to see a double in price .. on some fine day..

and the hui stocks .. 25 inch water main trying to get into 1/2 inch water hose .. those who sell will be missing the move of a life time in my opinion// gold stocks down is a big yawn from the ment .. as it is orchestrated by powerful forces and ding bat traders .. trying to gotcha .. settle back .. watch the slow burn .. front seats ..

no margin.. those who believe ment had his head handed to him.. have not a clue .. and are smoking the same paper tiger ..

as remarked to EQ .. i know of one insurance company .. with gold on its balance sheet .. and thats no sheet ..

have you asked the boss if your company has some gold to ride out the storm …

as russell said .. a paying job in the coming storm .. will pay the butcher , the baker , the candlestick maker ..

the paper gold is a pavlovian dog .. and those who think this is the price .. are smoking paper .. laced with arsenic

we will visit the hui come a couple years ,, until then ment has entered the market..last night with some stash..doubled down and the other in the marker stash.. will rise from the very bottom .. lol ..

calm collected and refusing to answer the bleating of rag weeds .. to wit .. lol

sleepmore in seattle .. burma shave ,,

got it..