Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

I am 95% long physical just a small position I put on in error at HUI 330 via PMPIX. The rest is in cash so no one is more bullish longer term than I am. I just think it takes longer to materialize than most here that’s all. We are on the same team. If anyone is buying rounds for worst case scenario they would be better served buying a small bag of junk 90%. If we go deep no amount of metals will save you. For investment I would buy the 1000 ounce bars now if I had no exposure. I think it is just nuts to pay this kind of premium for bullion. That’s just me. I also think there will come a time to dump all the metals.

  It’s getting shredded at the moment. Gold too.

  Wondering if this will ever end.

  1000 oz. bars may be selling for less but they sure aren’t practical and probably not the best measure of where the silver price is or should be.

   That being said, if there is a default it seems far more likely that it would happen in the gold market. I don’t see it either but I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

…..they weigh 70 pounds each.who wants them………….people are buying silver for possible financial collapse……..if you got $10,000 ……..who in their right mind would buy a 70 pound door stop..just buy 10 ounces of gold !

..as far as premiums for silver 1 and 10 ounce bars….and coins..they still cost 14 to 16….because there arent any…….Junk silver is at a premium too……..premiums may fluctuate but……….

Dont forget.there is a real chance that going forward there will be a complete collapse of the World Monetry system….in a day.in a month…a year ?…silver is cheap insurance for the day your bank machine says TILT…..and It most certainly will happen one day …….what you gonna do then…eat your stock certs ?…..ignore it at your own risk !

I see 1000 ounce bars less than a buck over spot. Even the staunchest bull Franklin Sanders remarked today that the premium on Silver junk was down 70 cents today. Even he sees the premium closing on the rally to 12 bucks. I would never pay 6-7 bucks over the price on the Comex for Silver esp at these low levels. As far as a default goes I’ll believe it when I see it. Embry is brilliant Butler I am not so sure about but if these guys can be so wrong about the valuations up till now why are they right now? I am yet to be convinced.

Kunstler

I have thought for some time that things could get dangerously out of hand in America, despite our exceptionalist notion that we are immune to the common plot-lines of history. For starters, inauguration night will seem more like Halloween, as those two little words fly in to haunt the new president. So, a large and looming question is: who will be appointed the next attorney general of the US (to replace the human sash-weight currently occupying the office), and how soon will the federal marshals be scouring the wainscoted hallways of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, not to mention a thousand Greenwich, Connecticut, hedge fund boiler rooms, with man-sized nets?
     A story-line is already emerging to the effect that these birds really didn’t quite know what they were doing in grinding out that multi-trillion dollar basket of alphabet securities sausage (a theme on Sunday’s “60-Minutes” broadcast). Nobody will buy that line of bullshit, though — and certainly not in the courtroom where, for instance, Mr. Hank Paulson will have to answer why his own firm of Goldman Sachs set up a special unit to short its own issues. It will be edifying to see how they answer.
     In the meantime, however, millions of Joe-the-Plumber types will have gotten their pink slips, slipped helplessly into foreclosure, watched the repo men hot-wire their Ford pickups, and eaten down the kitchen cupboard to a single box of Kellogg’s All-Bran (which had been sitting there for eleven years infested with weevils). They will be watching the official proceedings in the federal courtrooms with jaundiced eyes as they hunch in their tent cities, in the rain, sipping amateur-brand raisin wine bartered for a few snared rock doves. How long before the hardier ones among them venture out to Easthampton with long knives and matches?

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/

Thank you.

….that is the Price of Silver…..about 16 bucks for a Silver Eagle………why call it a premium.the Comex Price is a Discount ..if you will !

…The Real price of someting is what you pay..

…Remember the USSR..they had Theoretical (Manipulated) prices.and the real price…..you had to pay way above official prices to buy a pound of butter or loaf of bread…

.I for one have Phys Silver bought last year………and its value has increased .if I wanted to sell.the “premium would net a gain !…………….If nobody in the retail market wants it….How come there isnt any….

p

This is a good index for the Canadians. Notice the candle for today.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=

I am on the same page as you. I think we get a gift sell what we have left next Spring. I don’t see a moonshot on this upcoming leg. I believe we have bottomed and may have some type of retest maybe not but we should see a strong market for some time into next year. I think that rally should be sold. Watch the premiums on the Silver contract as we rally. I cannot believe people are paying this type of premium for bullion now. The plate spinners are still in charge. With the exception of physical Gold the whole complex was a sale last Spring. Silver it should be clear is not the safe haven choice and won’t be going forward. J6P will have enough trouble putting food on the table if things get much worse the last thing he’ll consider is buying Silver.

I think the XAU is more accurate then the HUI as far as morning opens, so I question if what you say is true — maybe you’re right I just thought the XAU worked like GDX.

I agree that we are not out of the woods by any stretch and yes there will be much selling.  Still, you look  at stocks like SLW that were down 87% off the highs in clearly a forced liquidation situation and you must see some value there.  I agree that there are trapped bulls that there will be selling into the rallies, but just as well there are many overly bearish shorts still in the game and even more bears/bulls on the sidelines in cash right now.  The path of least resistance for the time being is up IMO.  I’m not expecting to see new lows.

Those better than me can analyze the balance sheets and reserves. I claim no expertise. But, I would be interested in opinions of accountant types here on this one:

European Goldfields, trades on TSX and OTC in US. Share price appears to be approximately equal to cash reserves, which makes the resources basically free. But, I could be wrong.
Geopolitical risks as always. I still sit on sidelines on long, slow learning curve for dummies that been burned.

Yep but not the HUI and XAU as you said. As far as these gold stocks go I am trying to establish whether the monster volume off the tops is a true Show of Weakness or capitulation. The last time we saw this kind of negative volume off the January highs in 2004 we saw a weak market for 18 months. Just because we dropped from 520 to 150 HUI does not mean all these stocks are screaming buys for long term buy and holders at these levels. We are oversold and should see some nice rallies but I am not certain we are out of the woods in the pm complex as of yet. There will be massive selling all the way up by trapped bulls.

If the bear flag in the hourly chart plays out we could see another test of the 680 area.