Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

SNIP

“The pessimism and gloom is certainly justified. With the S&P 500’s (SPX) 35.1% year-to-date loss, 2008 is heading for the record books as one of the worst stock-market years ever. This bear has been brutal. In its first year which ended October 9th, the SPX was down 41.9%! This was the largest first-year loss in any bear since the one after the 1929 crash plunged 43.8% during its first year. Things look and feel pretty bleak.

With endless bearish arguments out there, many very logical and plausible, it is easy to surrender to the pessimism and capitulate. But if you are a contrarian, somewhere deep in your brain nagging doubts are gnawing away. If virtually everyone is bearish and pessimistic, and almost everyone is discounting Armageddon, shouldn’t I fight the crowd and be bullish? When better to buy low than when practically no one is brave enough to buy?

While it is very hard to be bullish today, my inner contrarian keeps warning me that today’s excessive pessimism and bearishness isn’t sustainable. Every time I unmute CNBC in my office, 95% of the interviews are bearish and negative. Each time I read financial news, a similar unbalanced negative worldview emerges. The bearish trade is certainly extremely crowded today, highly in vogue.

All these newly-minted weathervane bears are amusing to watch. The right time to be bearish was back in the early 2000s, when everyone insisted on staying bullish. Back in 2001 and 2002 I was making the case for a 17-year secular stock bear based on market history. This meant the stock markets were due to grind sideways for the better part of two decades in a giant trading range. It was a heretical thesis at the time.

While the perma-bulls scoffed back then, they are not today. If you are not familiar with the long cycles in the stock markets, my “Long Valuation Waves 3” essay will quickly get you up to speed. Understanding where we are in these long cycles is the single most important piece of knowledge any long-term investor can possess. While most naïve investors are crushed in these secular bears, prudent investors can thrive.

I continued this thread of research over the last 7 years, updating it periodically. By January 2008 it was starting to look like we were entering a cyclical bear (lasting a few years) within this 17-year secular bear. While the SPX was still sojourning in the high 1300s I warned…”

www.zealllc.com/2008/spxbull2.htm

i have to be sounding like a broken record on this but the overriding fact of all the info you see on this site is there is no gold and silver in the retail channel. the retailers have two choices, buy from commercial storage units (comex, etc.) or go out of business.

i can assure you that some production is coming out of the ground and going directly to strong hands and into their vault. it will not surface again until it can be traded for other means of producing wealth. i haven’t personally witnessed that movement, but every time a shortage in anything develops, demand always circumvents normal distribution channels and hoarding ensues.

with the assistance of a labor report, bonds gave a significant reversal down friday. reversals are significant when they come just before or after a holiday. if the past is any indication, bonds move opposite of the pm. markets can only be “managed” for so long. eventually supply and demand rule. the trick is to remain solvent until that happens. the bond markets have severely tested my patience and solvency. with a little luck, the reversal friday will be confirmed. gold is still active from an rpw up. several currencies have rpw’s up and are active.
the five year bond has a rpw down on the weekly.

gurus come and go and are always making outrageous statements. every decade or so when they hit one, they write a book telling everyone how great they are and why you should buy their book. they then fade into the woodwork when their “system” fails.

i have never seen any demanded commodity go down in price when it was unavailable. paper promises are not commodities. i may be very wrong, but i predict heavy deliveries on the december futures contract simply because there is no other supply available. the mother of all short squeezes may ensue and prices will explode. the price explosion will hit the news and the only avenue left for investors is pm stocks.

irish and i have found a rare herb in belize that increases vision, hair growth, libido, and memory. it will reduce blood pressure, anxiety, weight, aging and wrinkles. we will soon multi level the operation. we’re gonna make the holland tulip bulb scare look like childs play. we will need payment by western union to belize. anybody need the address to send funds?{G}

rno

FGC is right. I say that we are all entitled to our opinions but our “Tent” should not be a soapbox for bigotry in any form whatsoever. We are all  the children of our Creator.

Bloomberg Sues Fed to Force Disclosure of Collateral (Update1)

By Mark Pittman

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg News asked a U.S. court today to force the Federal Reserve to disclose securities the central bank is accepting on behalf of American taxpayers as collateral for $1.5 trillion of loans to banks.

The lawsuit is based on the U.S. Freedom of Information Act, which requires federal agencies to make government documents available to the press and the public, according to the complaint. The suit, filed in New York, doesn’t seek money damages.

“The American taxpayer is entitled to know the risks, costs and methodology associated with the unprecedented government bailout of the U.S. financial industry,” said Matthew Winkler, the editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News, a unit of New York-based Bloomberg LP, in an e-mail.

The Fed has lent $1.5 trillion to banks, including Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., through programs such as its discount window, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Term Securities Lending Facility. Collateral is an asset pledged to a lender in the event that a loan payment isn’t made.

The Fed made the loans under 11 programs in response to the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. The total doesn’t include an additional $700 billion approved by Congress in a bailout package.

Fed’s Position

Bloomberg News on May 21 asked the Fed to provide data on the collateral posted between April 4 and May 20. The central bank said on June 19 that it needed until July 3 to search out the documents and determine whether it would make them public. Bloomberg never received a formal response that would enable it to file an appeal. On Oct. 25, Bloomberg filed another request and has yet to receive a reply.

The Fed staff planned to recommend that Bloomberg’s request be denied under an exemption

…..you are out of the penalty box…

……….you are out of the penalty box…..

I assume you are familiar with the Seven Names [ allocated in China ] before the time of Marco Polo

2_p

[PS:] .. Marco Brought back Paper Money .. Hmmmm

ahhh good….. have a good time guys

Soap? what is farmboy going to do with soap..hmmmmm…hey silverrider don’t drop any of it ..and if you do …just leave it on the ground ..Walk Away from it

etc ..

Thank You

………he would be the first to remind you of his 6 month time out from the Tent………the longest sentence on record here

………..Hi North……..I’ve been expecting you !

………………Israel is just a tinsty weentsy little Country …in a God forsaken strip of Dessert………….and you blame all the Worlds woes on this tintsy weentsy little place the size of Rhode Island ?……Ha

……..Its quite obvious you are anti Semitic…………as you have just stated what Hitler stated…..Its all the Jews Fault…They Caused the Weimer Republic to fail..and Now they are doing it again to the U S ?….What is your Solution..Extermination ?…….It is thoughts like you are presenting that Lead to Hitlers Great Power base……..

……..So in your world……….the US is doomed now because it is controlled by Blacks and Jews in the White House ?……..

………Israel is an underdog……..Its a tiny little spic of god forsaken Land that a few million people have carved a meagre living out of……..Incredible really what they have done there to create a vibrant economy in the midst of a Billion Enemies……

…….O K I’ve said my piece…and so have you………There is no place for Anti Jewish… Anti Muslim Anti Budist ….Anti Christian…. anti Hindu ….. anti Rastafarian…etc.. rhetoric at the Tent…….

………I hope others will chime in here on this………you Moose…. are spewing hatred of one of these Idiologies and that is inapropriate….and contrary to the ideals and principles of this place IMHO……….get it ?

………

……….Was Bush a closet Jew…?………Clinton ?……….

………..This train of thought is Sick…….and I am sick of it……

…………Get a grip man….

Yeah, better stick to gold. Mooseshama today was nothing less than hysterical. I can see him quite clearly sitting at his keyboard foaming at the mouth. That is what paranoid, conspiracy theories can do to the soul. Read what Hitler said before he started up the gas chambers. Many of his paranoid, schizophrenic outpourings used the identical words, aimed at the same group that Mooseshama is targeting. It is not a matter of economy, nor of right or wrong. It is at its deepest root a matter of psychology and in pscyhology it is called projection.

Also, I don’t give a rat’s ass about Makow. His type too has been on the world’s historical stage before. They have spoken the same words, while the concentration camps in Europe were being constructed. Peace comes from embracing those of different creeds, color, and race. That is the future of the world if it is going to be still around. Mooseshama’s hysterics spread hatred. I happen to work with people of Muslim faith, and have for years. We get along great. When we work together, I can always envision what it would be like if peace existed. Can you say the same about yourself? Can Mooseshama?

As someone said here the other day– every race harbors its racism. It is what we do to overcome it that determines the goodness of a person. Do we reach out? Or do we hide in the familiar illusionary comfort of racism? Search your soul and your conscience long and hard.

 Can you do a poem for Henry Makow?

 In one fell swoop by comparing mooseshama with Hitler - you made his point.

  In a nutshell, this is why this subject can never be addressed, it always ends the same.

  Best we just stick with gold.

guestofaguest.com/finance/the-forbidden-snl-economic-bailout-skit/