TQ - thank you kindly for that analysis response. Believe me, it has given me

great pause in looking at my remaining holdings. I failed to pull the sell trigger on my SLW holdings on Wednesday, even though I entered a bid. Shoulda sold at market at the opening, but NOOOO, gotta go for those extra “cents” in a market that makes no sense. Go figure. Now I am suffering even more. Dang, this is one bitch of a market.

My intent to move to 100% cash will be facilitated by any small bounce this coming week, if that is at all possible.

Your comments are indeed much appreciated.

Best to you this fine fall evening -

Silverboom

Mooseshama 18:33 Thanks for the inspiration

I saw Mooseshama the other night.
He looked a fright, quite a sight,
in his swastika and bright red tights,
saluting Hitler and his might.

The Jews, he said, they’re here again,
my pure world they do defame.
I am so good and they’re so bad,
they make me afraid and so, so mad.

Like you dear Adolph I’ll chew a rug,
before I’ll ever chug a lug,
one Munich beer with any Jew.
I hate that whole Wall Street Crew.

My God, dear Adolph. they own it all,
from great New York to St. Paul.
They own me too, I’m afraid to say,
I don’t even have the strength to pray.

My only hope is the Russian bear,
to crush them all in their Mid East lair.
But the Bible says they can’t be beat.
That even Russia they’ll defeat.

So fire up the trains, Hitler dear.
Fill them with venom, get rid of my fear.
We’ll solve the problem once again,
not gas this time, but nuclear rain.

I’ll meet you in the bunker soon.
With my last bullet and my ruin.
What a wonderful world this would be,
with no bad Jews, just you and me.

Now don’t take offence Mooseshama. Just exercising my freedom of speech and expressing my opinion. :)

Deep thoughts

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being
run by smart people who are putting us on
or by imbeciles who really mean it.”
– Mark Twain –

Good evening Tent

I have been busy doing yard clean up today, trying to get it done before the first snow, bound to happen one of these days.

Couldn’t help but notice the $3 silver and $450 gold price projected by someone at Rick’s Picks. If the present trend stays in place, ie, the cheaper the price the tighter the supply thus higher the premium, we will have to pay $25 for sil. and $1200 for an oz of gold!! Lesson here is not to confuse the paper price with the real price. Count the fizz in ozs, not dollars.

Best to all
Dusty

aurum @ 13:29 pm on November 8, 2008

If I did it correctly Then you have email with ” attached ” file

2_p

TQ, this is just a short response to your 8:30 posting about my views of TA

On your first point, that you “respectfully disagree that it is ever not necessary to study the charts”, I was unaware that I had made such a sweeping statement.  I did say at 22:52 on 7 Nov 08 that “Watching the charts of junior uranium stocks is not going to help me one iota with the loss that these holdings have given us”, and I think it was with that statement that you respectfully disagreed.

What I meant by the 22:52 statement quoted above was that the uranium stocks that I had chosen to buy (for fundamental reasons about the perceived future of uranium stocks, rather than for TA reasons related to the stock price at the time of purchase) had turned out to be a poor choice, so far.  Therefore, my choice now is whether to (a) sell these losers at a significant capital loss, or (b) wait it out for a possible realization of the fundamental reasons why I thought these were good stocks to hold for future gains.  In this choice, I am strongly influenced by my belief that there are defensible reasons to hold some uranium stocks, for fundamental reasons involving the price of uranium and the perceived future of nuclear sources of future energy supplies.  So it is because of my belief that there are some fundamental reasons to have a portion of our portfolio in uranium stocks, that brought me to say that looking at TA charts doesnt help me decide whether I made a good or bad decision on fundamental grounds.

As to your second point that negative comments about technical analyses are counterproductive, I agree.  And I apologize to you and other TA specialists for my previous negative comments about TA.  To have said negative things about TA is to have contradicted my own limited use of TA.  I have made investment timing decisions based on patterns of MACD, RSI, the 200 dma, and channel patterns (like the Jesse graph you posted at 12:17 on Goldtent today showing POG lower channel support at 650, which I would take as a buying opportunity if POG 650 were to be reached ).  I did not add ADX to the list above because, despite your excellent explanations of using the ADX indicator in severel items you posted on Gold Forum about 3 years ago, I have never mastered how and when to use ADX as a buy or sell indicator.  The other thing is that I am not a frequent trader and I refuse to use stops that reveal the price at which I am willing to part with my shares.  For the latter reasons, TA is less useful to me than it must be for active traders using stops.

In conclusion, I promise to cease  my previous bad habit of throwing spears from the sidelines to those who give Goldtent readers  their best TA opinions.  Thank you for all your contributions to TA understanding of difficult markets.       Equiz.

Farmboy

Cell phone # emailed to Fran before we left.   We had a good visit with MCMIKE today.  It was a beautiful day to meet a fellow goldtenter.   We are looking forward to our visit with you.

I would encourage all to take every opportunity to meet and share with those at the tent.

mooseshama @ 18:41 pm on November 8, 2008

Here is an example from your post.

‘ you need reasons? You post an article in the Globe and Mail saying Chinese capacity is worse than Japan’s by multiples and somehow that matters to gold? ‘

You may be the sharpest knife in the drawer here. I don’t know; but go a little slower for us dullards; give us the steps by which you get to your final point, or we are left scratching our collective heads, and you just don’t make sense. If it is your wish to be understood, then please clarify, one step at a time.

BTW; I think you confuse my suggesting a scenario with someone saying something definite based upon first hand knowledge. I was not ’saying Chinese capacity is worse than Japan’s by multiples … . ‘

I seek clarity. I set out a scenario to test it. If you wish to refute it please go ahead. But do not think that what I wrote is anything more than proposing an hypothesis.

mooseshama @ 18:41 pm on November 8, 2008

Yes. Reasons to support your point of view would be a good thing. Otherwise your comments appear rather strident. And if anyone sane should be panicking now, then please feel free to say as much.

silverboom @ 15:34 pm on November 8, 2008

At first glance it seems preposterous; but for the sake of clarity let’s have a look. The main point appears to be in this:

‘… and if this latest bottom is a wave 3 terminal sequence and wave 5 is extended like it often is in commodity prices/equities, it is possible that there is a 68% loss ahead for people going long today… . ‘

Looking at the weekly $gold chart we do see a wave one and a wave two [ they could be an A and a B ]; this is followed by a possible C. Let’s look at the C.

The current up wave has moved above the lows of the previous low; this means a few things.

The previous low there was 739.80. This current set has risen above $750, so it cannot be a four. So a five down is not next.

We could be seeing a one and two of C down from the $989.60 high, so now we could be in a C down that is subdividing into a set of five for this C. In other words, $681 a few weeks ago could be a one of Three of C down; the One of C being the drop to $739. The rise to $936.30 would then be the Two of C. The $770 just recorded could then be the minuet two up of this.

If that is the case, then minuet four and five of C are ahead, in this possible scenario.

Lots depends on one’s view of the rise from the lows near $254. If one see the wave Five of ONE top being $730 back in 2006, then the rise to $1033 was a B wave up in the correction. If this is the case, then the C down could be a nightmare. The monthly chart linked earlier by me to Jesse can give people a chance to do their own count.

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

If 2004 and 2005 were the wave four, then the current correction could go there, as that is within the rules as I understand them. If this deflation gets worse, I would not rule that out.

SilverRider (Re: Homestead Hollow)

Plan on arriving Sunday around noon to Homestead Hollow. Sorry for the late confirmation, but look forward to seeing you and picking up my winter supply of soap and hand cream.

Left a message on your home phone. Dont have your cell number.

Best, Farmboy

Equisteum

  I’m not sure what makes the Globe and Mail a “respected” publication anymore than I’m sure what makes the Wall Street Journal “respected.”

  Yes, no doubt Mandelman probably has influence over some readers and clients, although that’s the first I’ve heard of Giraffe Capital.

   The point I’m trying to make is that the same bankers that own CNBC own most of these publications. Therefore, IMO the agenda is usually to steer the readers or viewers away from gold related assets.

Alan Greenspan vs. Ayn Rand and Freedom

The connection of Alan Greenspan to Ayn Rand, decades ago, is being used to blacken her name and her ideas.

This from the Leftist “Mother Jones” publication is one of the milder expressions:

“In a historic moment, former Fed chair Alan Greenspan acknowledged he had been wrong for years to assume that government regulation was bad for markets. Whoops–there goes decades of Ayn Rand down the drain.”

Rightist publications are joining in the smear: Forbes magazine’s online blog states:

“Greenspan, protege of Ayn Rand and the driving mind behind the notion that risk can be contained by having ever growing numbers of market players taking pieces of that risk, has now admitted that ‘Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder’s equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief.’ […] ”The whole concept of self-regulation through self-interest is now dead,”

In response, I posted this comment on the Forbes site:

The lesson people have drawn from Greenspan’s failure is exactly backwards. Greenspan, “the maestro,” and his dream-team staff, couldn’t figure out how to run the economy. It was the Fed’s expansion of the money supply (1% interest rates!) that created the bubbles. So interventionism has failed, as it always does. Can anyone seriously say, “an even smarter version of Greenspan will get it right next time”?

The article says self-regulation is now dead. Okay, what’s the alternative? Regulation by the state–i.e., by new Greenspans? Forbes, above all publications, should be clear that the alternative to self-regulation is state dictation, the command economy.

Deregulation? There were 51,000 NEW regulations added over the last 12 years. Banking, housing, and insurance are the most regulated areas of the economy. They are strangled by regulations. This is the failure of the regulatory state.

As to Greenspan, this is the penalty of betraying Ayn Rand’s philosophy. To paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen’s famous riposte: Dr. Greenspan, I knew Ayn Rand, and you’re no Objectivist.

Let’s review the record in regard to Greenspan’s progressive split from Ayn Rand.

I can’t say I knew Alan Greenspan, though, being an associate of Ayn Rand, I met him a few times in the 1960s. But by 1970–almost 40 years ago–I and a couple of other Objectivists in that circle already realized that Greenspan was compromising on her philosophy. Little did we know how far his anti-Rand journey would take him. As the years rolled on,

  • he was hailed as the man who “saved” Social Security–by extending its confiscatory power,
  • when Bill Clinton’s State of the Union address called for socialized medicine, he rose to his feet, standing next to Hillary Clinton in giving a standing ovation to that proposal,
  • he became head of the mammothly anti-capitalist Federal Reserve, directing the government’s manipulation of money and credit,
  • he provided a laudatory dust-jacket blurb for a book attacking Ayn Rand (by a woman he had “irrevocably” condemned in print in 1968). Yet he repeatedly refused to contribute to or lend his name to the Ayn Rand Institute,
  • he wrote, in 1995, that government central banking is a necessity: “Only a central bank, with unlimited power to create money can guarantee that such a process [”a cascading sequence of defaults”] will be thwarted before it becomes destructive.” (Note that we just witnessed this “cascading sequence of defaults” despite –or, actually, caused by –our central bank.),
  • and now he has blamed free markets (as if we had them!) for his failures at the Fed. In conceding that his “ideology” was wrong, he was understood to be saying Ayn Rand was wrong–even though he had long ago forgotten or evaded every essential of what Ayn Rand stood for.     read more……

hi silverboom

well if there’s any accuracy to the prediction in the metals forcast I was thinking:

  1. earn more fiat
  2. wait for an absolute bottom that you’re comfortable with
  3. buy more

good evening Goldtent!  

Jim Rogers

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apt69CVW8hgM