Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

just play this for your bride - it’s a get out jail free card!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXvHRnGe940&feature=related

and if you need a backup

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aS2Fve72AZg&feature=related

Bill H:

To all; recently there have been several pieces out regarding “Paper vs Gold”. One that has stood out was Eric Sprott’s piece “Cash or Gold” www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/MAAG.pdf , this is an excellent read. Looking at this from the perspective of the guy in the street, would you rather have cash or Gold? Think about it for a moment, would you rather have $100 bills [cash], a savings/checking account at an FDIC insured bank, or physical metal in your possession? How safe are each of these?

We are truly living through the greatest game of financial musical chairs of all time. Which side of the fence do you want to be on when the music stops? Who says the music has to stop? [Mother Nature and raw math] In my opinion we have only seen the initial detonation of the financial nuclear bomb [you know, the blasting caps or dynamite that ignites the bigger bomb], we have yet to see the daisy chain of derivatives break. We have just witnessed a market crash and now await fallout from the massive derivative positions outstanding. The music is on the verge of stopping momentarily and you need to ask yourself the above question, when [not if] the banks close do you want $100 bills of ounces of Gold?

Neither of these currencies held pay any interest, and both have an increasing supply on an annual basis. Gold supply increases about 1% per year due to production while the Dollar’s supply increases by Federal Reserve and Treasury creation. What is occurring at present is that the Fed and Treasury are trying to create money supply [debt] faster than bankruptcies and writeoffs are destroying it. It isn’t working and mathematically it cannot work until they begin outright monetizing. This scenario is what Franz Pick the great Austrian economist said would be the endgame of the “fiat experiment”. We now only can look forward to nations and blocks of nations being forced into bankruptcy by the marketplace either refusing or not having the ability to fund further borrowings. This is when outright monetization [printing] begins. Once this scenario begins to unfold, the music will have stopped and people will vote with their money [type of]. It will be interesting to see just how short a time frame exists before producers, vendors, etc. begin to refuse paper in return for product.

While the paper price of Gold and Silver have been hit on the COMEX exchange, their true market values in the physical markets have held up very well, this is the phenomena of “good money driving out bad”. People are already exchanging their paper money for physical metal on a global basis and at some point holders of metal will stop accepting paper and physical supply will dry up altogether. The early stages of this are already visibly seen by global shortages of both physical Silver and Gold. The preliminary G-20 meeting has proposed a 100 day time limit on a decision of the restructuring of the global financial system. I find it hard to believe that the markets can possibly make it through this 100 day window without a derivative meltdown as confidence is shaking badly. The real economies worldwide are in such contraction that what is left of confidence is apt to evaporate one night while we are sleeping, and this confidence is what allows pieces of paper to circulate as the mediums of exchange.

One day soon the world will wake up to a complete loss of confidence which will affect everything, ie., markets not opening, banks and ATM’s remaining closed, and commerce being done on a cash or barter basis. Then the question of “cash or Gold” will be a very real one because the entire world will vote. It is times like these that “early voting” may just be in your best interest. Regards, Bill H.

In Feb 2007 I started reading about Armstrong’s work and I read that sometimes his turn dates may not be completely obvious at the time but looking back you get a better sense of what aspect of the market he referred to.

Feb 26, 2007 was the start of the collapse of the US banking system. He picked it to the very day.

….and now that Irish is in belize…….belize does too

China and silver…

Bill,
This is an interesting article but what caught my eye is that China consumes 4000 tons annually and is mining 10,000 tons yet it has proven reserves of 26,000 tons (832 million ozs). Unless there is something wrong with these numbers China has 6.5 years before it consumes all of its reserves or 2.5 years if it continues to produce at current rates assuming no effect from any exploration!

To put this in perspective if all of ECU resource categories can be eventually categorized as “reserves” then ECU will have more reserves than the whole of China!!
Cheers
Adrian

I feel it every day. Obama speaks from a podium with a placard that says “The Office of The President Elect”, some kind of presidential seal looking thing over it, his spokesperson says he is ready to “RULE’, and the proletariat goes wild again over the audacity of this megalomaniac. Our elected Thievocracy throws our money at all these banks, insurance companies, incompetent auto manufacturers that can’t build anything the people want to drive and refuse to give the victims of their giveaways any details.. better stop before I get carried away (or sent for re-education). All I can see for the future is Fascism and the following totalitarian despotism that is the usual, historical progression.. BO may be just the man for the job.

I have often wondered the same thing myself.  But my husband doesn’t care - he eats anything.

I got an idea….Lets break the sob out of jail ..give him a handle…and let him explain it to us….a real good handle like……….Martin Armstrong
By the way that last turn date was Feb 27 or so just after Goldtent inception 2007 when the market dropped 475 points….it worked like a charm that day…..
TQ …….I, I, I ,oh hell with it.I m going to a Giants game at Candlestick Park and try and light a cigarette with my last match..it would be easier than reading the train times

Postal Service Looks To Cut 40,000 Jobs In First Layoff In History

SHREVEPORT,LA (KSLA) - “We lost 2 billion dollars and like any other business we have to stay afloat.” And to keep from sinking, the United States Postal Service is considering cutting thousands of jobs nationwide. Lavelle Pepper with the post office in Shreveport says they too are feeling the affects of the same disease hitting the country… a struggling economy. “We employ about 685,000 people. If we do layoffs it would include clerks, carriers, mail handlers across all crafts.”

Pepper says the postal service is looking to eliminate 40,000 jobs nation wide.There’s not an exact number on how many of those could be from the Ark-La-Tex. Pepper says workers who are not part of union with six or less years of service would likely be the first on the chopping block.”We’ve identified 16 thousand people that are not covered under contract. We’ll see what those numbers add up to.”..

Fed Defies Transparency Aim in Refusal to Identify Bank Loans

By Mark Pittman, Bob Ivry, and Alison Fitzgerald
Bloomberg News
Monday, November 10, 2008

The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn’t require approval by Congress, Americans have no idea where their money is going or what securities the banks are pledging in return.

“The collateral is not being adequately disclosed, and that’s a big problem,” said Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Boston- based Loomis Sayles & Co., where he co-manages $17 billion in bonds. “In a liquid market, this wouldn’t matter, but we’re not. The market is very nervous and very thin.”

Bloomberg News has requested details of the Fed lending under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure. The Fed made the loans under terms of 11 programs, eight of them created in the past 15 months, in the midst of the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

“It’s your money. It’s not the Fed’s money,” said billionaire Ted Forstmann, senior partner of Forstmann Little & Co. in New York. “Of course there should be transparency.”…

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2060
1087&sid=aatlky_cH.tY&refer=home

 Cheers,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=a88-Tyl1gkI

….Rambus might say it is breaking up out of a little pennant…..hope not……but

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57311573223

if it takes another leg up here..The SM will definitely take out the lows.and continue to implode…

Cretins take note !

87….Bad

85 ….Good

Presently 86.30

….I see a top at 1450 in Feb 07 then a short drop to 1375………but that was a minor top..the double top was in July 07 and Dec 07 ..at 1550……..

as for silver.a minor sharp drop in feb 07…15 to 12.50……on the way UP o 21

Ahhhhhh…21..I knew it well !

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15838884571

for the engineers here.

I heat the grill to 600 degrees. There is a cast iron pan in the grill. Now not counting the effect of the lid being opened - is that pan uniformly 600 degrees? Would a larger pan with the sides being further away from the food affect cooking? Would a pan with curved up sides have a different temperature than a pan with straight up sides? Just an argument with mrs aurum that needs an answer. And shows you how my day has gone.

Thanks.

aurum (cast iron)