Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Did you make it over to the gold get-together in Australia?

I have begun watching Bloomberg news on my computer so that I really now have much more knowledge of what is going on in the world.

aurum

Thanks for that.  I missed that bit of news.  I’m pleased because all our investments are in Australia.  (I actually live in New Zealand.)

By the way, I enjoy your posts and always look out for them.

Thanks Aurum.  Good job calling the pog.  This is sure a tough market to see ahead.  Even lots of the pro’s are going TU.

Cheers, ipso

“The scary part is that the world’s entire financial system is built on the biggest lie in history.” (The notion that the U.S. dollar, untethered from gold, and printable at will, is and will remain sound, and a fair and reasonable entity to use as a reserve currency and the basis for the global financial system.  (I think I capture Bill H.’s drift.)) 

That is one of the best, simplest, most succinct, and most profound sentences I have read to date to describe where we are and where we’re going.  As I have repeatedly said to anyone who will listen , on the subject of the global financial system and what’s going on…. if you’re not scared shitless, you’re not paying attention.   It amazes me how many aren’t, because they’re not!

was not out to point fingers….

And under that idea HUI would no doubt see a retest of the lows. Let’s see that 150 on the HUI takes what 80% of the whole move from 2000 back. As said in that post months ago - impossible.

aurum (HUI)

By Tomoko Yamazaki

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) — The global hedge fund industry lost $100 billion of assets in October, according to an estimate from Eurekahedge Pte, as firms including Sparx Group Co. and Tantallon Capital were buffeted by investor redemptions.

Funds fell an average 3.3 percent in October, based on preliminary figures from the Singapore-based data provider, as measured by the Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index, which tracks the performance of more than 2,000 funds that invest globally.

The loss compares with the 19 percent slide in the MSCI World Index last month, as managers who trade futures, known as commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, and those who invest in Japan helped offset declines, Eurekahedge said.

The biggest market losses since the Great Depression and investor withdrawals hurt the $1.7 trillion hedge funds industry that manages largely unregulated pools of capital. The index of global funds has lost 11 percent this year, set for the worst performance since 2000 when Eurekahedge began tracking the data.

“This wave of redemption in the hedge fund industry is going to last for at least another six months,” said Toyomi Kusano, president of Kusano Global Frontier, a hedge fund research firm in Tokyo. “Managed futures funds are the solo winners in this environment and hedge funds that are investing in futures are the one bright spot in this environment.”

Sparx, Tantallon

Earlier this week, Sparx Group Co., Asia’s biggest hedge- fund manager with $8.5 billion in assets, posted a first-half loss on redemptions and falling stock prices. Its assets under management on a preliminary basis were 839.1 billion yen ($8.8 billion) as of Oct. 31, compared with a peak of 2 trillion yen in August 2006.

Assets in Singapore-based Tantallon Capital’s flagship Tantallon Fund shrank to $284 million at the end of October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund, managed by Merrill Lynch & Co. former head of sales and Tantallon co-founder Nicholas Harbinson, stood at $877 million at the end of August, from as much as $1.5 billion at the start of the year.

Tantallon Capital was ranked by Alpha Magazine as Asia’s 11th largest hedge-fund manager as of March 31.

In Europe, Man Group Plc, the largest publicly traded hedge- fund manager, reported assets under management, which stood at $70.3 billion as of Sept. 30, fell to $61 billion at the beginning of November, the least since March 2007.

aurum (DJIA)

If we assume we are in wave 4 now and we take the 2000 point wave 1 equaling wave 5 (as it seems clear wave 3 extended), then taking 2000 from the start of the very recent down at about 9500 gives that 7500 target.

My only doubt comes from the fact that so many are seeing that same count so that I look for a surprise (and I don’t see how it could be on the downside). Tonight is the full moon and tomorrow is the anniversary of the 1929 low (for that year).

aurum (DJIA)

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

………………..carry that on up to Now and it hits at..7500……..AND

………………that Trend line is Parallel with the Line between the 2 big tops..(in 2000 and this Years top)

……………….could 7500 be the start point for a rally…?.if so HUI would likely double bottom !

Here is the first post:

arch0708.goldtent.net/2008/08/05/hui-101/

Second post:

arch0708.goldtent.net/2008/08/28/fullgoldcrown-1229-pm-on-august-28-2008/

I will go back and fix the prior links. Thanks.

And a link back to the whole post that now has corrected links.

arch0708.goldtent.net/2008/11/12/ipso_facto-1441-pm-on-november-12-2008/

aurum

Links shows “not allowed to modify” or some such.

No fair!  you left off the good part - who said each of those.

by: Damon Vickers
Updated 7:58 pm EDT November 11, 2008

Now here is a company that in a larger context is a picture of our nation as a whole… bloated… slow… non - competitive… think too many mac and cheese dinners… too many cream cheese microwave pepper poppers… How many jack damiels does it take to motivate a GM executive? -one too many…. or

Better yet… the only way to fix GM is get rid of the entire executive mgmt of the company… How do you do that??? take away all the bars inside the corp offices… they will go willingly… -we are short GM. I hope they dont get funding… would be a shame. Same thinking gonna yield same results.