Poster’s Paradise archives for 2007, 2008, and a little 2009. Goldtent Management is not responsible for the content or accuracy of the posts *** DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE***
"There is only a relatively small group of investors who very seriously believe that there is a high level of risk that the (financial) system could break down. You only need a relatively small group to believe this to move the price of gold." In other words, the metal's price behavior reflects the trivial obsessions of a discredited fraction of investment opinion.
-Alan Greenspan
I will not be bunking at that transmitter site. Have a larger 3 BR. house on the island at another site. The KVI house is not occupied. Kinda hard to rent out with a transmitter and generator in the basement. That beach with the tower is the largest beach on the island. Although privately owned, the company allows limited public access. I saw the eagles there in August.
-> Posted by redneckokie1 @ 23:11 pm on November 25, 2008
when the usdx gets back to the 81.000 level, we should get some indication of the next move. if the 81.000 level holds, i think another leg up. if not, new lows before july.
-> Posted by GoldBalloon @ 21:57 pm on November 25, 2008
Are you bunking in the transmitter building? Looks like you’ll be in a nice place. A boat will be nice to have, maybe a shell to scoot across the flat water with.
silverffox52- glad you enjoy them
AuGirl- spotted some past attempts to combine rockets with trains. The ‘Golden Rocket’, of course, was the best. The only thing it had to do with rockets was the name, but that’s good enough.
-> Posted by aurum @ 21:44 pm on November 25, 2008
Barney hasn’t come into the office lately. I suspect he is mad about the trading rules that I ignored recently and that have got us in a bit of a hole. Also I missed the extension on the wave 5 down on GDX.
I am making good progress on getting us out of the hole and I think he will start stopping in once I have accomplished that and have apologized to him.
-> Posted by AuGirl @ 21:19 pm on November 25, 2008
I think there’s a good chance that gold can rally fairly quickly to the $1200 area over the next month or two as the dollar gives up much of its gains since July vs. the other major currencies, although gold would obviously be rallying in all of these currencies during that period, just as it is now. And the metal could perhaps rally even further should there be an “event”, such as the PBOC increasing its gold reserves by 4000 tonnes (over 6 times the gold that the GLD ETF holds) as the PBOC has “floated” several times in various Chinese newspapers, such as The Standard, over the past several weeks
Longer term, I think we’ll see the Dow/Gold ratio fall into the low single digit area (just as we have after every secular bear market in equities since 1900) and perhaps even to 1 to 1 as we saw in 1980. Where that number is depends on how much the Fed inflates and how much we see in outright price declines in asset prices. My “guess” is somewhere aorund $4000 to $5000 an ounce, which might be where the dollar is eventually re-tied to the gold price, but again, that’s just a guess.
And that guess may well be too low given the Fed’s current inflationary path. Consider that if the Fed were to try and tie its liabilities (which have been rising by about $200 bln a week of late and will probably hit $3 trillion by year-end according the Fed’s Fisher) to the US gold reserves of 8133.5 tonnes on a 1 to 1 basis, it would require a gold price of over $8000 an ounce.
For all of you asking “why all these bailouts.” Below is why.
The Iceland economy is at a standstill after the implosion of its banking system. What caused the implosion? A ridiculously overleveraged banking system, not unlike our own.
The bailouts are our government’s attempt to avert the kind of banking collapse that would reduce accumulated wealth to near zero (via a sudden nationwide bank run). My fear is that the banks are going to blow up anyway, and that if the Fed goes down with the ship, government will be powerless to help us out of this mess.
(Dare I say it?) I wonder if Andrew Mellon’s infamous advice to Herbert Hoover might actually have been correct: “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate . . . purge the rottenness out of the system.”
Folks, especially those of you who are so vociferously against these bailouts, understand that without them, our banks would have collapsed by now, making a Depression more or less inevitable. That’s what’s happening in Iceland and that’s what would happen here.
My concern, and the reason I oppose the bailouts, is that the long-run alternative is worse. Inflating a PUBLIC credit bubble to replace the imploding PRIVATE credit bubble solves nothing. A crash will come, the business cycle can’t be banished. By committing itself to guarantee all of the liabilities of the private financial system, the government will have little ammunition left once the downturn gets going in earnest.