Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

is….

If the SHTF, paper anything may be in rough shape…..

Feels like the whole thing is crap shot dilemma right now.

If the system collapses, a short ETF could be worthless if the deris implode too - the counterparty may not be around to pay up.

And nobody is buying cars for a few years - then you may see copper climb.

RJI

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rji

I believe this has bottomed as has the HUI and most commodities.

Thanks for everything and special cheers and good wishes to those amongst us who have seemingly lost everything (paper), hang in there, a bright dawn approaches.

Aguila

is timing?  When to dip in.  I think this rally will die at some point, and that is when I am thinking of wading in….

My theory is we the markets have dropped something like 40% I think….Japan went from 40,000 to presently 8000….that is a slow painful death over 20 years…We could be in for the same thing.

now…  the HUI doing better than the DOW lately…

My useless opinion is that Gold, Silver, maybe plat,  *should* (we know how that works)  do well over the next while because of the banking crisis, money printing, etc…BUT I think the other mining companies could get destroyed.  With cosumer consumption down, man alive - 45% drop in vehicle sales in 1 month!!, etc…we will see lessening demand for steel, zinc, copper, etc…

Now the interesting thing about that is that often silver and gold are a by product of some of those other mining activies and if they slow down - even less production of gold and silver….

Now, my feeble brain tells me that long term, copper should do well…after all, what are the big 3 getting all that money for?  Electric cars… Ever hold an electric motor winding in your hand?  Do you relize how much copper is used in electric motors.   I think I saw somewhere that an electric car uses 5 to 6 times the copper of a gas car….

Now, with millions of electric cars on the road that need to be charged, in an electrical grid system that is strained to carry enough power as it is…guess what?  We need more power lines to beef up the grid…more copper…

But what the hell do I know?

I think you pretty much missed the short side of the SM “easy money” - especially on the banks.  The SM is a discounting mechanism and I think a lot of the bad news over the next 6-9 months is already priced into stocks.  Big, bad bear markets often have prolonged periods of bear market rallies.  Most of the meat seems to be off the bone IMO from the short side of banks (and gold stocks) unless you’re playing for the doomsday scenario before the end of the year. 

Sentiment is just off the lows and the bank indexes have bounced near LT monthly support:

On the daily they had a real good oversold flush marked by a dragonfly doji / hammer.  So I could see a bear market rally play out over a month or two fwiw.  Structurally they are still in a world of hurt but nothing goes straight up or down month after month after month.

…whats not to like ?

…HUI lead the Dow down by 3 months…..it could diverge from the Dow anytime now and start back up !

….what a Huge Divergence on that HUI chart eh ?

pump at 2 cents and dump at 3

One that is short the Financials  (I think the bank failures are not done yet, the ETFs had a good dip, but…)

and One that is short the S&P….I too see no reason for the general SM to go up anytime soon…there is massive unemployment, bankruptcies, etc…..

What does ya think?

The mortgage crisis is starting to spread to the Commercial RE sector.  A whole new tranche of sub-prime debt.  Darryl Schoon said last Christmas was the last Merry Christmas for a while, and the retailers will reluctantly agree.  Retail is falling off a cliff.  Shipping is sinking like a stone.  The three US carmakers are insolvent.  China is in recession, but in true Chinese fashion they won’t admit it.  But they are slashing interest rates and have a $600bn stimulus package, steel mills closing, 61,000 factories closed this year etc. but no, not in a recession.

The stock market hasn’t crashed yet.

“All paper will burn.” - Another

mo,mo seems to be in our advantage right now…

Haven’t heard even a peep from most of the bears ever since the higher low held on the pm indexes.  So sure of their positions at the bottom and I guess just real busy right now.