i won a taco from ment on that one. i went to that rodeo in the 1980’s and lost everything but my wife, kids, furniture and two bird dogs. the only thing i can guarantee about the crude oil market is that it won’t be close to these prices in july ($20. one way or the other). don’t believe $10. crude? don’t think for a minute it can’t happen. you won’t be able to afford to fill up your car if it gets there because you won’t have any of the fiat they would issue and keep it in short supply.

there are many reminders of the past. one of my favorites is architecture. look around any major city and see when the mansions (for the time) and big business buildings were built. then look across the street at the modest buildings. then more mansions and then modesty. the housing cycle sometimes reflects and sometimes leads the business/war cycle. the war cycle is so screwed up now that we have no idea where we are or where we’re headed. nothing like a good war to jump start an economy. our economy has been jump started so many times we now need a new starter but nobody wants to get dirty replacing it.

decades ago when we were an agrarian society, events around the world could sometimes be isolated. now resources are shipped around the world. i think world leaders know we are going into financial catastrophe and are trying to get the blame shifted to someone/something that can’t defend itself. in true political fashion it’s “all for one, and every man for himself”.

probably the thing that worries me the most is the unknown power that rests in the hands of a dwindling number of people. not the military, industrial, political group but the relatively small group of people who grow the vast majority of food for the planet. farmers now comprise less than 4% of the worlds population. the technology, processing, and transportation network is now very complex and sophisticated. any major disruption in the chain and you have instant calamity. with the morons we have in banking, finance and government, that disruption is almost certain to occur within the next 5 years.

years ago when i was in the military(1967-1971), we had currency called military payment certificates (mpc). it was issued to keep american federal reserve notes out of asia. when they changed the mpc, everyone turned in the old and got new issue. in order to exchange it, we had to write our service number on the bills. the old mpc was worthless overnight. is there anything stopping our sleazy pear shaped politicians from doing that with federal reserve notes? if you had several thousand dollars laying around and could only exchange $1,000., what would you do with the rest? our government officials will reach new lows in sleaze before things start to get better. they may try to confiscate gold and silver or try to convince everyone that the new currency in sound and you don’t need the safety of gold. by that time, everyone will swear the nigerians have secretly taken over the government.

rno