Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

my sa gold stock mutual fund has now closed above the 50 day moving average. the higher highs and higher lows of the last few weeks has now, hopefully, been confirmed.

i still believe the deflation scare is temporary. if the presses were chained to a gold standard, we would be in a deep deflationary depression. a printing press totally unencumbered guarantees inflation will triumph. the morons who are buying long term bonds will be trapped and lose much of the corpus when they try to unload.the government/fed is attempting to do what drug addicts do with uppers and downers. the fed is attempting to accelerate and brake at the same time. controlling inflation with a little “induced” deflation, and all the while getting sicker (dollar and dollar denominated investments) until a vital organ quits (banks, businesses, whatever).

the future is impossible to predict since decision makers constantly change their mind about the future course. soon we will have new decision makers who aren’t any more qualified than the last ones. i remember well the policies of former fed chairman paul volker. he isn’t afraid to make a decision concerning your future and has to be proven wrong for way too long before he does an about face. soon he will be making those decisions again.

get out of debt and get pm. when the currency change comes, as it must, someone is going to get shafted. when europe went to the euro, the germans got shafted and the italians came out great. it happens every time. if you are in debt and the currency change favors someone else, you may not be able to service your new debt that you didn’t agree to.

the pillars are beginning to shake. obama is going to bail out the entire united states except for the non green folks. we will be importing more items from the jobs we shipped overseas. in the not-too-distant future, we will have to send gold from fort knox for our imports and when that runs out, we will send the us military if we still have one.

rno

He was the head of the Committee to Establish the Gold Standard and
worked with Congressman Ron Paul for the passage of the American
eagle gold coin bill of 1986

….from his site….thegoldbug.net

SOMETHING IS ROTTEN IN THE STATE OF ECONOMICS

In the middle of the 20th century, a group of bankers bribed some of the
nation’s top colleges to peddle a reactionary economic theory (which
made the bankers a lot of money). This theory swept American higher
education with the result that pretty much anyone who has graduated
with a degree in economics (since 1960) does not have the slightest idea
what he is talking about.

This is why you stayed out of the great bull market when it was beginning
in 1982. It is why you were not a gold bug in the 1970s, and it is why you
were caught by Black Monday 1987. It is why you believed, in 2000, that
the Dow was going to 36,000. All around you is the advice from these
people, and they are almost always wrong.

Www.thegoldbug.net exists because there is a crying need for truth in
economics. Howard S. Katz is self educated in economics. He was a gold
bug in the 1970s. He became a stock bug in Dec. 1981 and remained
bullish on stocks for most of the next quarter century. However, he
avoided the bear markets of early ’84, Black Monday, 1994 and (most of)
2000-2002.

There is nothing wrong with the science of economics, but there is
something terribly wrong with the kind of trash handed out by our nation’
s colleges today. It is people dumb enough to imbibe such trash who are
the reporters and columnists in most of the media, and these are the
people giving most Americans their economic advice.

Truth is the most valuable commodity in the universe. We intend to keep
feeding you out bits of truth until we have you hooked!

… but I like reading a spectrum of opinions just in case.  Worst case here is the emergency sail fund gets implemented and I score more o’zees.  For sure ain’t no ounces coming out.

I am with both of you guys here on trying to understand the significance of all this ’stuff’ I read and I read, I try to concentrate, and at the end of it all, my mind is foggier than when I started !!

…I’ll be damned…I think he IS North !

My head still hurts…

  I kinda thought with his fondness of poetry, North might actually be Katz.

http://www.thegoldbug.net/

BTW - “oversaturation” is a good word

I’d just like to see us put a few up days together - in a row.

The Price of Gold and Silver
arch0708.goldtent.net/2008/12/03/price-of-gold-and-silver-repost//

IMF Gold Sales and U S Dollar
arch0708.goldtent.net/2008/12/08/imf-gold-sales-and-us/

IMF and Gold Swaps
arch0708.goldtent.net/2008/12/08/imf-and-gold-swaps/

more to come

..the more we know the more we dont know….and on and on….my Brain is nearing Saturation point…

…and Now enter Zilifant……with some terrific new insights…….but alas my little bug brain cannot absorb the meaning of Special Drawing Rights…..

…Zilifant ..I sense you are on to something important….but could you give old Equiz and old FGC a break …and explain in simple terms what these SDRs are and how the US Govt will use them and what impact it will have on the POG

….meanwhile there is a rouge Plannet out there ready to destroy us all in 2012 anyhow…..so maybe we should just party….and pay for it with our gold and silver stash !

MAYA….what have you done to my Bolser Bash ?

………sheesh…..Dizzy !

The IMF is the facilitator of paper gold.  It has spent recent years trying to unravel the problems created by its member CB’s, particularly the problem of preventing more than one entity carrying the same gold on its balance sheets.  The link below contains interesting discussion of this.  At footnote 5 on page 5 it is stated that “…double counting of reserve [gold] assets is not unique in gold swaps and gold deposits/loans but it can happen in other revers transactions, such as repo….”  That Issues Paper discusses this in detail making distinction between monetary gold and paper gold.  In addressing the issue of who and how to account the physical gold as an assets, it states; “the ‘monetary authority [CB] makes gold deposits [loans!] to have their bullion physically deposited with a bullion bank which may use the gold for trading puspose in world gold markets’ and ‘The ownership of the gold effectively remains with the monetary authorities [CB’s] which earn interest on the deposits [loans]…’”

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/pdf/resteg11.pdf

Note the this document was prepared by the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics, dated 2006.  It is one of many issued prior to and since that date.

Hey, do you suppose the upcoming ’sale’ of IMF gold is going to go to try to rejigger the member CB’s balance sheets to cover the loaned gold that will never be repaid and is uncollateralized (swaps are collateralized, but gold loans are not required to be collateralized altho they may be).  That is to ask, if the uncollateralized loans are now being repaid with cash/securities/whatever, how else do they make the CB’s balance sheets whole?

Like every other CB gold sale announced in the past 10 years, you have not and never will hear who the buyer is and that is because it never reaches any market when they are the seller.  The physical was already sold.

Australia sounds alot like the way they distribute it here.   Work hard, pay your bills, not in debt up to your eyeballs, no criminal record, etc. etc. - just solid citizen –  NO $$$$ for YOU!  And I thought that was only the American way!

if the IMF decides to sell that much gold, let’s make some assumptions. I think there are 32,150 troy ounces in each ton of Gold x 3000 tons= 96.5M ounces. 

if they sell 4000 tons= 128.6M ounces. if people around the world decided to step up and enter the gold market and purchase 10 ounces each, you would need 12.8M people (4.2% of the US population) to buy up the supply “overhang”.

128.6M ounces X $772 an ounce= $99.3B

128.6M ounces X $455 an ounce= $58.5B

Only 58 billionaires would have to enter the market (at the bottom) and trade their crappy paper in.

There are 946 proclaimed billionaires in the world! Hell, Bill Gates is worth $56B alone!

www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/katz120808.html

Coincidences: 1) US mint and other mints stop or cut back precious metals coin production 2) Kitko simultaneously stops including LIBOR on its gold lease rates page 3) US$ continues strengthening above 80 4) world retail gold demand far exceeds ’supply’ 5) price of paper gold going down 6) IMF sales rumors re-ignite.  All events within 90 day time period.

The strong dollar policy has never been publicly defined by any US official in the past 10 years.  But the policy has been deemed necessary and is directly tied to international finance via SDR’s, of which the US$ is a key component and the US has a major vote in how and when SDR’s are redistributed.  See

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm and also Wikipedia