Loading ...I try to flip through my charts every weekend. See if there is anything new developing.
Yen continues to totally beat up all other currencies:
…and the $VIX is still range bound in a triangle. I still think the SM goes back down and tests the low sooner rather than latter. I don’t see how we could really move much up until that is done. However, if the VIX rolls over that would be pretty bullish in the ST for the SM - especially commodities IMO:
In the discussion over the past few months I had looked for an explanation of the mechanics of how it would develop.
McHugh, available on a 30 day free trial, and others are indicating that a large B wave rally of some months, perhaps ending in March 2009 has begun, as indicated in the monthly and weekly and other charts.
The clear long-term top in most major indexes that was visible a year ago, and the decline that developed after mid-March 2008 [ ably foreseen by Rambus ] appears to have ended its initial phase; as stochastics and other indicators have generated buy signals in monthly and weekly charts in many important indexes.
We now see the long-sought outline of the mechanics of transitioning from deflation to inflation to hyperinflation in an article at JSMineset.com
snip
‘The roots of hyperinflation ‘
‘A prerequisite of hyperinflation and monetary collapse is that a disruption in the availability of essential goods occurs, today this could happen as a result of past reliance on expanding credit and fiat money temporally facilitating dependency on low cost imported goods many of which now feed primary needs leading to a commensurate loss of home production capacity with an inherent delay to the medium-term should such reengagement with manufacture become necessary … .’
‘ In my view the most probable sequence of events resulting in hyperinflation and monetary collapse is as follows:
‘ 1. A broad based shortage of goods that are thought essential develops and this is not relieved in time to satisfy demand.
‘ 2. Consumers trying to acquire essential goods that they believe are in short supply become fearful and are prepared to pay increasingly higher prices and stockpile these goods further increasing shortages and accelerating prices as a sellers market develops.
‘ 3. Prices rise for essential goods in short supply as an increasing proportion of the money supply circulates in these goods, also with increasing velocity and as most of these goods are consumables with high turnover upward re pricing quickly occurs.
‘ 4. The proportion of available money circulating in goods that are perceived as essential increases and the demand for less essential goods diminishes I.e essentials become disproportionately more expensive than the norm against non essential goods displacing money towards the goods most in demand further fuelling inflation,
‘ 5. The shortage of essential goods accelerates as manufactures increasingly focus on short term survival, longer term risk is avoided and investment in the production cycle is reduced accelerating 1.
‘ 6. The normal balance of demand for all goods increasingly prefers those goods required to satisfy primary needs and people engaged in making and supplying less immediately essential or non essential goods become unemployed who then pressures governments accelerating condition 9.
‘ 7. Eventually goods not immediately required but non the less essential are needed and rapidly increase in price as they also become in short supply.
‘ 8. Consumers with least money first find it increasingly difficult to secure essential goods, become frightened and are forced to allocate greater proportions of their money on essential goods and demand greater income,
‘ 9. The demand for money forced by need and fear becomes irresistible so governments feel insecure and provide increasing amounts of fiat new money,
‘ 10. Consumers first to spend the new money see some value but soon as this new money is distributed and its value is lost, the velocity of money also accelerates as people rapidly exchange money for goods, wealth is seen as best protected when stored as goods rather than cash further increasing price and reinforcing condition 9. ‘
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This outline of the mechanics makes sense to me. It corresponds the history of inflation in France in the 1700s, as described by White. It explains how inflation develops towards hyperinflation as described by White; there the inflation destroyed the productive businesses, led to increasing unemployment as these failed, and led to increasing poverty as productivity increasingly declined in the face of increasing demand.
The implications of this outline are that shortages will develop [as are suggested by measures such as are visible in the decline of the Baltic Dry Index, and the port authorities of the major Western US ports showing double digit declines lately in imports and export volume, as documented by George Ure at Urbansurvival.com. ]
Some of the meaning of the price spikes in oil and related products such as propane is now becoming apparent. This is indicated in the article that I posted December 10. See:
www.silverbearcafe.com/private/12.08/famine.html
I think that the edges of society, where poverty is currently most visible, will see the effects of shortages and higher prices first; this is already apparent from the civic unrest that developed in Mexico when corn prices rose and led to a food crisis. This food crisis was visible elsewhere as well.
Now we see from the article that the food crisis may be about to enter a second and more difficult stage, a stage unlike the first, as in the first food was still available, albeit at higher prices. Now we are about to witness shortages, as outlined in the article linked above, and elsewhere. George Ure’s site has forecast for months that shortages would become an increasingly dominant theme.
The next few months may be a good time to prepare for these and related issues.
I wish Moggy well in her preparedness activities; Rambus on your place, good luck to you too; and those who would prepare might consider something that has not been discussed much here in terms of preparedness: the need for physical fitness. Planting and working a garden can require eight or ten hours a day of heavy physical work.
While some may have the wealth to purchase some years’ supply of food etc., those who cannot may need to begin the arduous task of removing grass and weeds from gardens plots, and replacing these with well-tilled soil that has not been poisoned by years of herbicides, etc.
The work of gardening and putting up food after harvest may be difficult but there are many who have done this and can offer good ideas for those willing to learn.
Books such as the Have-More Plan have been re-issued. The book, Seed to Seed, about preserving seed is available. Many others are too.
The spring garage sale season may be the last in a long time for the acquiring of good garden shovels, rakes, forks, etc. This winter presents a good opportunity to write one’s book of things to do as the spring develops into summer, etc. Current prices at hardware outlets may be low due to years of false economic policies, but may not last, so good leather gloves may be available by the 100 lot wholesale, and other necessities may be priced well too.
yes, King Mambo’s disinfranchisemental predicaments are a bit of a problemo, but how about a toast to that anyways,,hiccup 
Here’s a song for ya and if I could embed the darn thing I would ..Cheers to you pard
oh my favorite free helo-chopper kinda guy…
wj
hi ya buddy!
btw tell your friend i’ll take all his gold off his hands for spot on monday morning when the ‘banks’ are open so i may zip him a wire quickly as soon as i have a reciept for the brinks transfer of course. [g]
best
wj
The reply you got from your friend is interesting, if nothing else it shows he (or she) is a thinking person. It is always good to have thinking people as friends !! I would have to question this one comment though…..
“I know they are holding tons of unaccounted for gold so they can control the price. They have the connections and ability to mine it and store it off the books.”
Is that just his speculation or does he have something concrete to back it up?
Merry Christmas
Dusty
hear you bud–deflation…duh whats dat? [gg]
my wife went to medicare in 2007 and i did the aarp [florida] plan f [soup to nuts stuff] for her.
this is my singular bcbs of the past 20+ years [traditional plan which i understand they no longer underwrite ??] and which i shall say bye bye to in 2010 for medicare replacement –if its still here of course??
one day i’ll retire i ‘think’! [gg]
best pard..wj
and he is advising me to sell my physical/ stocks and buy property instead. I told him no way I’m doing that, and i sent a few big picture charts to him. Here’s what he said to me, and I guess I shrug my shoulders and move on. just another friend that doesn’t get it yet.
“Thanks for the charts. They do tell a story. Well due to the Illuminati’s control on markets the way I see it is a CRAP shoot since unless you know their specific plans you may or may not be on the winning side as far as investments go. I know they are holding tons of unaccounted for gold so they can control the price. They have the connections and ability to mine it and store it off the books.
I think there are many things an individual can to to protect themselves but I see it best done more energetically and the physical will follow. So I do have hope. Some of the stuff I send you will shed some light on what I mean by all this. Really it comes down to what you want to experience in this life time were no ones choice is right or wrong unless they are imposing their will on you which is what the Illuminati is doing in my opinion. And from another perspective it is all a choice. From their perspective what they do is ok because they view us as dumb and unable to govern ourselves. Plus most people give away their energy freely mainly through victumization mind patterns. If there were no victims there would be no oppressors. They feel it is their right to rule/dominate people who in effect are asking for it. These ideas have come from my studies of them and how energy/thought works and manifest. The illuminati know this so called secret knowlege and use it to get what they want. They know it very well and try to keep it hidden out of mainstream education and the public through much disinformation in subject such as - new age, history and science. Most is a distraction to keep people confused and powerless.”
hi wanka!
Hey Welcome Back partner! My health insurance (also BCBS) went up $840 for the two of us next year. Joy! No deflation there…
i just love the giggles dear lady. as a ps the king mambo still hasen’t gotten his skype to operate properly…but than again being comp-u-tater dis-in-franchized has its down side too!
cheers and a big toast to you my vino friend!
wj
I hope you find that glass (or was it jug) of wine, cux I am tipping one right back at ya !!
Holi crimoli .. welcome backkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk pardner in crime, I mean wine
Hope you been doing well???? No worries about the Atocha… Irish ses he’s got buried treasures in his backyard but I’m a little hesitant to start excavating lest I find a dead politician or 2 ??
Nope, I don’t do cottages in the Hamptons…too swankie dankie for me, I just like to observe the snots …Well Wanka, I do hope you’ll stick around for awhile cuz Aggie and I are waiting patiently to test the 1st batch of the soon to be world famous pirates bounty grape escape fine wines of Belize personally stomped by the chief stomper in command. and while you’re doing that, I’ll just be testing the runoff for quality…Wouldn’t want anything to go waste pardner, seeing as we’re on a tight budget and all ..LOL
yes yes i’m rich i say rich—my 61 buck raise in ss made me rich…it did.. just rich enough to pay for my 2009 health insurance [bcbs] jack of 725 annual bucks. oh well the split level packing box in the burger king parking lot need wait till 2010 for upgrade…
wj
