This is an updated chart from one I posted on October 31, if memory serves, and there are a couple things I thought might be worth sharing.

maybesimpleisbetter5.gif

First, the blue data line is a continuation from October 31 up to a few days ago. The green lines are a heuristic (perhaps statistic) forecast made by me on the original October plot. You can mentally apply the last day or so of closing prices to continue the blue line a little further.

The test of the upper channel came earlier and thus at a higher value than forecast (see blue line rejection at 870 or so), which is symptomatic of the vagary of reading tea leaves. From this I conclude that it is very likely that we will have another go at the top channel very soon (this conclusion is in part due to the screaming fundamentals of the physical gold sector).

Bottom Line - The coming direction (over the next few months) in the gold price has yet to be defined. We will be in a trend change in our favor if we can bust out above the channel and stay there for a few days.

PM